The latest IPA Bellwether Report (Q4 2025) sends a clear signal to brand marketers: growth conditions are tightening, scrutiny is increasing, and the old playbook is no longer enough.
Marketing budgets held flat at the end of 2025 and more notably, the usual Q4 spike in spend never materialised. At the same time, pressure from CFOs and boards to prove short-term ROI has intensified, competition across paid channels has increased, and budget cycles are shortening.
For CMOs and performance leaders, the question isn’t how to spend more – it’s how to unlock incremental growth more intelligently.
Below, we break down what the report tells us and the three strategic shifts brands should prioritise now.
Key Takeaways from the IPA Bellwether Report (Q4 2025)
If you’re responsible for growth or digital performance, these are the signals that matter most:
Marketing budgets were flat in Q4, with no traditional end-of-year uplift
Short-term ROI pressure has increased, driving harsher scrutiny of every channel
Main media budgets are forecast to decline in 2026, while competition in performance channels continues to rise
Brands are being forced to diversify their channel mix to protect results
Shorter budget cycles are limiting optimisation and long-term learning
In short: marketers are being asked to do more, with the same – or less- room to manoeuvre.
The Hidden Risk: Over-Indexing on Bottom-of-Funnel Channels
In uncertain markets, the instinctive response is to double down on what looks immediately measurable: paid search, paid social, retargeting.
But there’s a structural problem with this approach.
When brands over-index on bottom-of-funnel channels:
They don’t create new demand
They cannibalise existing audiences
They end up bidding harder for the same users in increasingly noisy environments
No single channel delivers sustainable growth in isolation. Growth comes from the combination of channels working together, across the full customer journey.
This is why diversification and smarter use of owned and first-party assets is becoming critical.
Our Top 3 Recommendations for Brands in 2026
1. Collect and Activate More First-Party Data (Without Relying on Forms)
First-party data is now one of the few genuine growth advantages left, but most brands are still under-capturing it.
AI is going to change marketing for good, and AI is backwards-looking; it relies on data from the past to power it. That means high-quality first-party data will become key. It is essential in 2026 that brands focus on growing their CRM/Subscriber bases, can identify more people on site and can attach real insight and signal to them (e.g. what they declare to you and how they engage).
Brands should incentivise consumers to provide data and tell them more, but also actively engage with the website, leaving questions and consumer reviews.
Paid traffic is expensive. Letting high-intent visitors leave your site anonymously is no longer acceptable.
Brands should focus on:
Increasing first-party reach from existing site traffic. In short, capturing value beyond traditional CRM sign-ups. Consider using Optivo, to retarget anonymous site visitors, not on your CRM with email.
- Build Community – whether it is online or offline, build a community. Ask for feedback, get reviews, ask them what they want to see more of, what they don’t understand, invite them to events, give them birthday treats – basically make them feel that giving you data and insight is valuable to them.
Using email as an ID to activate audiences in social, programmatic, email and postal. Means you can always target at a 1-1 level and suppress current users.
The opportunity: unlock incremental reach from visitors you’ve already paid to acquire.
2. Shift Spend Towards Less Noisy, Less Competitive Channels
The Bellwether report makes it clear: competition is intensifying, and efficiency is declining as everyone crowds onto the same platforms.
Social media may feel familiar, but social platforms do not want their audience to leave the platform (e.g. go to your website), and if somebody engages with your ad, five of your competitors are instantly shown.
Winning brands are doing the opposite:
Testing less saturated channels
Working with new publishers and partners
Finding routes to market where attention is cheaper and performance is more stable
- Going to stickier channels where your stays – like postal and email.
This isn’t experimentation for its own sake; it’s a defensive growth strategy.
At esbconnect, we are seeing that the combination of postal and email is delivering winning results for new acquisition, improving conversion rates by 2-3 times.
Lower competition almost always leads to better efficiency.
3. Rethink Retargeting: Move Beyond Auctions and Walled Gardens
Traditional retargeting still works but it’s getting more expensive and less incremental.
Rising CPMs mean brands are often:
Paying more to reach the same users
Re-buying audiences they already own
Measuring performance without true incrementality
This is where Optivo fits.
Optivo enables brands to:
Retarget anonymous site visitors via email
Reach consumers who aren’t on your CRM
Drive incremental revenue without bidding in paid auctions
It complements paid media rather than replacing it, adding a second retargeting rail that reduces dependence on inflated platforms.
Why Shorter Budget Cycles Make This Even More Urgent
Shorter budget cycles may feel sensible in uncertain conditions, but they come with a hidden cost.
Marketing effectiveness compounds over time:
Channels need learning periods
Audiences need refinement
Messaging needs iteration
When budgets are reset or questioned every quarter, teams default to what looks immediately measurable, even if it undermines long-term growth.
The brands that outperform in flat markets are those that build systems, not just campaigns.
Final Thought: Growth Won’t Come From Doing More of the Same
The IPA Bellwether doesn’t suggest marketing has stopped; it shows it has become more forensic.
For CMOs and performance leaders, the opportunity is clear:
Capture more first-party value
Diversify beyond the noisiest channels
Unlock incremental growth from the demand you already generate
That’s exactly the gap Optivo and esbconnect are built to address.
In a market where spending more isn’t an option, the brands that win will be the ones that extract more value from what they already have.
FAQ
What does the IPA Bellwether Q4 2025 report show?
It shows flat marketing budgets, increased pressure to prove short-term ROI, rising competition in performance channels, and a shift towards diversification and shorter budget cycles.
Why is over-reliance on bottom-of-funnel marketing risky?
Because it cannibalises growth, increases competition for the same users, and fails to create new demand.
How can brands improve retargeting efficiency in 2026?
By combining paid retargeting with privacy-safe, first-party alternatives like email-based retargeting that don’t rely on auctions.
